WEEK 7 • ATR'S SELECTION
UPSET WATCHOklahoma State at Houston
Saturday, October 17 • 7:30 PM ET • FOX
ATR SOUNDS THE ALARM
Houston deserves respect at home, but Oklahoma State has the offensive firepower to spoil the party. The Cowboys enter 4-1 and undefeated in conference play, scoring more than 40 points in three straight games. Drew Mestemaker has thrown for at least 300 yards in four straight, giving OSU a quarterback capable of winning a shootout. The matchup I like is Oklahoma State's passing attack against Houston's secondary. OSU ranks sixth nationally in passing offense, while Houston ranks 118th in passing defense. Houston's fourth-ranked run defense will make rushing yards difficult, so I'm looking for Eric Morris to attack through the air. The concern is Houston's ground game against OSU's 81st-ranked rushing defense - getting off the field will be critical.
THE PATH TO VICTORY
Let Mestemaker attack: Use the passing game to create explosive plays and challenge Houston's secondary.
Protect the football: OSU has committed nine turnovers this season. Giving Houston short fields could decide this game.
Force Houston into passing situations: Win early downs, limit the ground game, and make the Cougars earn their points on third-and-long.
Houston gets the home crowd, but I'm backing Mestemaker and Oklahoma State's passing attack to deliver the road upset, 35-31.
AFTER THE FINAL WHISTLE
LOSS — Oklahoma State fell 35–32, so the submitted moneyline lost. The +4.5 best bet covered and grades WIN.
FINAL SCORE — Houston 35 — Oklahoma State 32THE ALARM LOG
Oklahoma State to win
CURRENT ALERT →North Carolina to win • Pittsburgh may be 5-0 and ranked 25th, but the Panthers barely escaped Virginia Tech 35-33 last week. Now they're without starting quarterback Mason Heintschel, forcing Holden Geriner into his first collegiate start. Meanwhile, North Carolina's 2-2 record is misleading, with losses coming against Clemson and #3 Notre Dame. UNC has faced tougher competition, and I believe Bill Belichick can exploit Pittsburgh's quarterback situation and pull off the upset.
LOCKED IN THE ALARM LOGMississippi State ML +185 • Mississippi State is a live home underdog, not just a long-shot flyer. The Bulldogs are 4-0, have already beaten ranked Missouri, and are scoring 43.0 points per game while producing 533.2 yards per game. Alabama is also 4-0 and explosive, so this is not a fade of the Crimson Tide; the case is that Mississippi State has enough quarterback play, offensive firepower and home-field edge to turn this into a one-possession game where the Bulldogs can finish the job.
LOCKED IN THE ALARM LOGIowa ML +180 • For Week 4, ATR is sounding the alarm in Ann Arbor. Iowa is the Upset of the Week. Both teams enter 3-0, but Iowa has built the stronger early defensive profile. The Hawkeyes lead the nation in scoring defense at 4.3 points per game and total defense at 176.7 yards per game, with two shutouts and only one touchdown allowed through 12 quarters. The offense has also given Iowa a real upset path. The Hawkeyes are averaging 268 rushing yards per game, rank 10th nationally on the ground, and have allowed only one sack. Against UNI, Iowa exploded for 640 total yards and 422 rushing yards. Quarterback Hank Brown has completed 72.6% of his passes through three starts. Michigan is also 3-0 and its defense is allowing only 13.0 points and 220.0 total yards per game, but the Wolverines have been less explosive offensively. The 38.5-point total points toward a lower-scoring, possession-by-possession game, exactly where Iowa can become dangerous. A physical run game, elite defense, dependable kicking and field position can shrink the number of possessions. At +5.5, Iowa has room to stay inside the number—and at +180, one late stop or short field can flip the game outright. The Hawkeyes need to protect the football, avoid falling behind by multiple scores, win the rushing battle and force Michigan to earn every yard.
LOCKED IN THE ALARM LOGMissouri State ML +164 • For Week 3, ATR is sounding the alarm on Missouri State. Marshall enters 1-1, but the Thundering Herd have not shown enough for me to fear stepping in front of them. They opened with a 45-0 loss to Penn State, then returned as a double-digit favorite against Middle Tennessee and barely escaped 28-26. Missouri State is also 1-1. The Bears were thrown into the fire against Texas A&M, then responded in Week 2 with a 48-14 win over Lindenwood. Now they get Marshall at home. Marshall has averaged only around 228 yards of total offense per game through two games, while Missouri State has done a strong job limiting explosive plays. That matters in an upset spot. Missouri State does not need to dominate for four quarters. The Bears need to keep the game ugly, prevent cheap touchdowns, make Marshall drive the length of the field and give themselves a chance in the fourth quarter. At roughly +164, I do not need Missouri State to be the better team every Saturday. I need them to be capable of winning this matchup often enough to justify the price. I believe they are.
LOCKED IN THE ALARM LOGKansas ML +170 • Missouri deserves respect, but there is much less separating these two teams than the ranking next to Missouri's name suggests. Kansas went into Columbia last season, built a 21–6 lead and later regained the lead twice before Missouri rallied for a 42–31 victory—a final score that did not reflect how close Kansas came to winning. Now the Border War returns to Lawrence for the first time since 2005, giving the Jayhawks a long-awaited rivalry home game and a chance to return the favor. Kansas also has a new dimension in dual-threat quarterback Isaiah Marshall. In his first start, Marshall completed 14 of 19 passes for 246 yards and two touchdowns, added 49 rushing yards and committed no turnovers as Kansas produced 613 total yards. Missouri quarterback Austin Simmons was impressive in his opener, but this is his first true road start for the Tigers, at night, against the school's biggest rival. Missouri will also be without star running back Ahmad Hardy, while All-SEC tackle Cayden Green continues working his way back. Kansas gets Missouri at home, gets another shot after letting last year's game slip away and brings a quarterback whose arm and legs give the offense another dimension.
LOCKED IN THE ALARM LOGColorado ML +215 • Georgia Tech is laying 6.5 at home, and I still like Colorado as the live dog. The biggest reason is Brennan Marion and the Go-Go offense. Marion's system uses option concepts, unusual two-back looks, tempo and vertical shots to force defenders to hesitate. He helped UNLV win 20 games in two seasons, then took a 3-9 Sacramento State team to 7-5 while producing the top rushing attack in the FCS. Now Marion gets Power Four athletes at Colorado, and Georgia Tech has no regular-season film of the Buffaloes running his system. Preparing for it on paper and defending it at full speed in Week 1 are two different things. Georgia Tech is also replacing longtime quarterback Haynes King with Indiana transfer Alberto Mendoza, creating another layer of uncertainty for a favorite being asked to win by a touchdown. Colorado is coming off a 3-9 season, so Deion Sanders enters this year with real pressure to show progress. Give me the desperate head coach, innovative new coordinator and unfamiliar offense. The line moving from Colorado +7 to +6.5 and the moneyline from +220 to +215 does not change the call: Colorado can win this game outright.
LOCKED IN THE ALARM LOG